A retrospective on Friedman’s Theory of Permanent Income

Friedman’s book on the “Consumption Function” is one of the great works of Economics demonstrating how the interplay between theoretical ideas and data analysis could lead to major policy implications. We present a short review of Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis, the origins of the idea and its theoretical foundations. We give a brief overview of its influence in modern economics and discuss some relevant empirical results and the way they relate to the original approach taken by Friedman

Income variance dynamics and heterogenity

Recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance. In this paper the assumption of i.i.d. income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks, which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory. We first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components. We allow for education- and time-specific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error. The conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious ARCH process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967-1992 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find strong evidence of sizeable ARCH effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances

Ability, parental background and educationpolicy: empirical evidence from a socialexperiment

Following the great expansion of secondary education in the UnitedStates between 1910 and 1940, Sweden was one of the first Western Europeancountries to attempt such an expansion by increasing the years ofcompulsory schooling and and improving access to academic type educationby abolishing early selection. The reform was preceded by a large scale areabased social experiment where 25% of the contry?s municipalities were assignedto the reform. We use this assignment, together with rich individualdata to evaluate this major educational interventions. Our key findings arethat this reform increased the educational attainment of individuals withunskilled fathers. In addition it caused significant and large increases in theearnings of those with unskilled fathers and above median ability. Following the great expansion of secondary education in the UnitedStates between 1910 and 1940, Sweden was one of the first Western Europeancountries to attempt such an expansion by increasing the years ofcompulsory schooling and and improving access to academic type educationby abolishing early selection. The reform was preceded by a large scale areabased social experiment where 25% of the contry?s municipalities were assignedto the reform. We use this assignment, together with rich individualdata to evaluate this major educational interventions. Our key findings arethat this reform increased the educational attainment of individuals withunskilled fathers. In addition it caused significant and large increases in theearnings of those with unskilled fathers and above median ability

Crime and Economic Incentives

We explore the role that economic incentives, particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution, play in determining crime rates. We use data on the police force areas of England and Wales between 1975 and 1996. We find that falls in the wages of unskilled workers leads to increases in crime. We carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures, including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment. These reinforce the picture of a strong impact of wages on crime. The result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

Labour supply and taxes

In this paper we provide an overview of the literature relating labour supply to taxes and welfare benefits with a focus on presenting the empirical consensus. We begin with a basic continuous hours model, where individuals have completely free choice over their hours of work. We then consider fixed costs of work, the complications introduced by the benefits system, dynamic aspects of labour supply and we place the analysis in the context of the family. The key conclusion of this work is that in order to estimate the impact of tax reform and be able to generalise results, a structural approach that takes account of many of these issues is desirable. We then discuss the 'new Tax Responsiveness' literature which uses the response of taxable income to the marginal tax rate as a summary statistic of the behavioural response to taxation. Underlying this approach is the unsatisfactory nature of using hours as a proxy for labour effort for those with high levels of autonomy on the job and who already work long hours, such as the self employed or senior executives. After discussing relevant theory we then provide a summary of empirical estimates and the methodology underlying the studies. Our conclusion is that hours of work are relatively inelastic for men, but are a little more responsive for married women and lone mothers. On the other hand, participation is quite sensitive to taxation and benefits for women. Within this paper we present new estimates form a discrete participation model for both married and single men based on the numerous reforms over the past two decades in the UK. We find that the participation of low education men is somewhat more responsive to incentives than previously thought. For men with high levels of education, participation is virtually unresponsive; here the literature on taxable income suggests that there may be significant welfare costs of taxation, although much of this seems to be a result of shifting income and consumption to non-taxable forms as opposed to actual reductions in work effort

Labor supply models: unobserved heterogeneity, nonparticipation and dynamics

This chapter is concerned with the identification and estimation of models of labor supply. The focus is on the key issues that arise from unobserved heterogeneity, nonparticipation and dynamics. We examine the simple ‘static’ labor supply model with proportional taxes and highlight the problems surrounding nonparticipation and missing wages. The difference in differences approach to estimation and identification is developed within the context of the labour supply model. We also consider the impact of incorporating nonlinear taxation and welfare programme participation. Family labor supply is looked at from botht e unitary and collective persepctives. Finally we consider intertemporal models focusing on the difficulties that arise with participation and heterogeneity

Career progression and formal versus on-the-job training

We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firm-worker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the life-cycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits; however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the long-term lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Income Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications

The effect of school quality on educational attainment and wages

The paper examines the effects of school pupil-teacher ratios and type of school on educational attainment and wages using the British National Child Development survey (NCDS). The NCDS is a panel survey which has followed a cohort of individuals born in March 1958, and has a rich set of background variables recorded throughout the individual's life. The results suggest that, once we control for ability and family background, the pupil-teacher ratio has no impact on educational qualifications or on male wages. It has an impact on women’s wages at the age of 33, particularly those of low ability. We also find evidence that those who attend selective schools have better educational outcomes and, in the case of men, higher wages at the age of 33. The impact is higher for the type of individuals who are less likely not to attend selective schools, but for whom a comparison group does exist among those attending